When Social Media Decided to Die
They all start out with promises but end up with detractors
I am sure that you have seen such a curve before — it has been used in a plethora of situations, of which some are appropriate, others not.
When people experience a loss, for instance through death of a loved one, this curve is used to describe what stages they go through before eventually getting back to normal again.
When I studied change management many years ago, the same curve was used to describe what was not allowed to be called “resistance” against the change, but had to be described as a natural reaction – and then again, with this curve, everything was considered to be “just a phase”, so you wouldn’t, as a change agent, need to pay much attention to people’s anxiety, anger, etc., because it would pass.
Hence, the curve needs to be used with caution, and, to be honest, I don’t think it is 100% fit for the introduction of a new social medium, a new technology, etc., because there will be an initial upwards going curve based on the (often unrealistic) hopes and expectations to the new thing. Only then, people will start getting more sceptical, and probably the general opinion and mood regarding the new thing will split, so we will see those who become ambassadors and those who become machine stormers.
Nevertheless, social media do have a down-curve after a while, and this is what I describe here.
The main problem is that the initial positive treatment of the users will, always, be replaced after a while with one after another of frustrating changes.
At first, users start discussing these as “algorithmic changes”, and they can quickly get to an agreement that they can be overcome by just knowing more about how the algorithm works. Some clever people then immediately set up themselves as experts and start selling courses and books about it, and for a while, things look good again.
But then comes a new change, and another, and a third.
It gets more and more complicated to find out how to navigate the platform. You used to have friends or connections whose posts you would for certain see when you opened the app, but they are somehow gone. You used to be able to write something that would be seen by those same friends, but they are no longer seeing it.
If you used to have 500 likes on everything you wrote, then, one day after yet another change, there will be 5 — or none.
Some of this can be attributed to the need by the social medium to adjust unwanted behaviour. For instance, on LinkedIn, a couple of years ago, things had developed into a few big influencers getting huge amounts of likes and corresponding attention, and they were selling their presence to sponsors, making the whole thing a circus with the influencers in the manège and the rest of us on the spectator seats.
LinkedIn decided to, suddenly, change everything, so these VIPs saw their popularity (and business) be cut down to a tenth of what it was, literally overnight.
All other platforms have been through similar changes, basically disrupting the social scheme — breaking it down — and seeing a new one form out of the rubble.
Along the way, advertising and other monetisation schemes enter for the platform owners to benefit, and these will get increased priority, step by step, until the users experience the platform as pointless. However, users keep staying there because they still believe that the platform helps them keep in touch with their friends, and some still believe that there is a chance to build up a presence, a name, a successful business of some kind.
But social media keep dragging their users back along the left side of the curve, when first they have reached that stage in their development – that is why I keep telling that they are bound to die out.
In fact, they are committing suicide by not allowing their users to ever become happy with the platform, making it only a matter of time and outer circumstances when (not if) people will leave the platform.
Sooner or later, people will give up. They will understand that they no longer have a chance to stay in touch with their friends on Facebook, earn a living on Medium, build a business reputation or get a new job on LinkedIn, or become successful bloggers on Substack.
If there is nothing that supports users in their initial belief that they through curiosity and engagement can achieve something good, they will eventually stop believing in it.
I believe that social media started out, more or less all of them, with good intentions: They wanted to create a space where people could do something together, be social. But they did that for investor money, and the investors wanted, along the way, to get their money back plus earnings.
The founders of the platform also wanted to become billionaires. For whatever reason, it is not possible to start anything on the Internet without the intention of becoming a billionaire. What happened to just doing your work because you like it?
So, for billions to come in, user satisfaction is sacrificed, and then the whole thing escalates, because one billion is never enough — have you earned the first, you want the next as well, and the 100th, and the billionth, I’m sure.
But the trees do not grow into the sky. There is only so much you can do that makes your users unhappy before they leave your platform.
When will it happen? X has done a fair deal of annoying their users, and some have left, but most are still there. Facebook has become a terrible place for many users, but it is still used by billions of people. LinkedIn is the one place for keeping your CV readable for everyone, so if no other place can offer the same, people may stay — however, I feel that there has always been a very low active participation rate there, and now it is getting even lower. So it could be that the discussion part will die out (or be replaced with bots talking to each other).
Medium cannot survive for long. It doesn’t provide users with the dream of earning money any more. It is even official, that any money earned should be seen as a token of appreciation only, not a basis for living.
X will die. Trump’s version of Pravda (Truth) has never been able to attract more than a few million haters or everything, and when X turns into a similar platform, that same amount of people will use it. Of course, as a political vehicle, it may survive, but not as a place for general information exchange.
Substack?
I feel some unhappiness with Notes. I also feel excitement for Notes. Those who are excited, are those who are good at gaming the algorithm on other platforms and feel at home with this concept. Those who are unhappy are those who liked the initial incarnation of it, where writers told each other interesting stories on Notes.
The Publications have got video options, chats, etc., which is seen as bad by some of the old members. They liked the writing-only platform, and now it is no longer that.
Freedom of speech is possible on Substack, but that brings all of us in the same boat as those who abuse this to spread Nazi propaganda, for instance.
So, there are some tensions, and it is clear that the management of Substack are heading towards whatever will grow the platform. More users mean more money. They are quite outspoken on this.
Will Notes bring in more users? Yes. More activity, more gaming the algorithm, more memes, more pleas for likes and follows, etc. — all together, more like the other social media.
As soon as there is a sustainable platform size for introducing ads and sponsors, they will come. Substack denies that now, but so did all the others — until it came.
As I have also mentioned before, this will give us a time with Substack where it still works as we are used to it (unless we are from the initial group of members), but it will not last more than perhaps a couple of years.
What I don’t know, is what should bring me to the upwards going part of the curve? Some say that it becomes fun with 1,000 subscribers and above. Others that with time, a dedicated group of followers (no matter the size) will make it fun. And others have their experiences or hopes that they want to share with new users.
But all such ideas are based on what they experienced a while ago. When there were fewer users altogether, and where growth had the support of everything being new and exciting.
So, for the next couple of years?
I honestly don’t know. Community building works only if the community wants it, and even during the few months I have been here, I have seen a shift in who I see on the platform, hence, it has not been a steady community until now. So will it be from now on?
Just some thoughts. Comments are most welcome!